A New Product Planning and Forecasting Model for the Avionics M

This research proposes a generalized product planning and forecasting model to be used in product development projects in avionics industry. The model is based on a specific application that focuses on cockpit weather information systems (CWIS), a new group of aviation products. CWIS are information systems located in the aircraft cockpit providing weather information to the pilot via data link communication with the ground. This product group demonstrates typical characteristics of the avionics industry, hence constitutes a rich application area for developing and testing a decision model. To achieve the specific requirements of the industry, a number of aggregate diffusion models are examined. Weather information has significant implications for aviation system safety and there is general agreement that improved cockpit weather information can reduce accidents and injuries. To provide improved weather information to users in the national airspace system (NAS), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) created the Aviation Weather Information project (AWIN), the sponsor of this research. In the light of the general context of this program, this study is founded on previous studies in CWIS development including the rate of the customer demand for these products, and desired product characteristics. It investigates various cockpit weather products, and based on their selected characteristics, it proposes a product planning and forecasting model combining conjoint analysis and an extension of the Bass model based on CWIS data. This study suggests that a similar approach can be used for new product planning and decision making in the avionics market, which can predict the penetration of similar future advanced technologies.